In a Prior Blog, we explored using an eight-month lag on new single-family housing permits to estimate completions. Permitting isn't as predictive of HVAC market demand as measures like existing home sales, a favorite of JP Morgan's Steven Tusa. However, my issue with existing home sales is that the data is offered at the regional level, not the state level. For that reason, I still like to look at state-level permitting and completions as a barometer.

The orange line in this chart represents estimated home completions on a rolling 12-month basis. We ought to see a strong start to the year, as completions should be up 16% year-over-year (also known as the 12/12) as of January 2025. However, permitting began slowing down toward the end of 2024, creating a headwind as we move deeper into 2025. This slowdown represents about a 4% drop, translating to a 2.8% 12/12 by August.

Housing inventory, which we share on our Data Page, measures the number of houses with either Active or Pending listings. Inventory has been increasing since it bottomed out in early 2022, approaching and even exceeding pre-pandemic levels across our footprint. We previously predicted that this inventory trend could indicate slowing housing demand, and that seems to be playing out. However, Brian Loftus's latest issue of the HARDI Data-Driven Newsletter highlights several indicators that appear to have bottomed out and show potential to trend back positive, including existing home sales.

Joseph Carboni
Partner & Operations Manager
Shupe Carboni & Associates